If there is one certainty in European tech, it's that nothing is certain. And the more data you have, the less you know. So, technically, that would make two certainties.
Also, two sets of analysts can look at the same landscape and come away with entirely different weather reports. Which...would make three certainties.
But we digress.
Atomico’s State of European Tech 2025 sees blue skies, tailwinds, and a trillion-euro tech champion on the horizon. PitchBook’s European Venture Q3 2025 sees… clouds. Some lightning. Possibly a dragon. And definitely fewer follow-on rounds.
Before we compare them, a crucial disclaimer:
Atomico uses full-year 2025 projections based on data up to 30 September 2025 and blends quantitative data with qualitative founder & investor surveys.
PitchBook, by contrast, measures actual data up to Q3 2025 with no attempt at crystal-balling December.
So, yes. One is painting a mural. The other is reading a bank statement. Different exercises. But comparing the two is still useful (and, frankly, entertaining) because it reveals the psychological split in European tech this year: confidence vs. caution, momentum vs. math, vibes vs. valuation tables.
Let’s dig in.
Europe in 2025: Same continent, different moods
“The best moment in a decade to build.”
Atomico’s tone is the most upbeat it has been in years. The report opens on the idea that Europe is “at a crossroads” but with optimism at a ten-year high.
A few of Atomico’s headline datapoints:
- Europe’s tech sector is now valued at $4 trillion (versus < $1 trillion a decade ago), equal to 15% of European GDP.
- The continent now hosts 40,000 funded tech companies (versus <10,000 in 2016).
- Talent is surging: 4.6 million people now work in European tech, up 4% YoY.
- 81% of European AI founders choose to stay in Europe (vs. 74% in 2016).
- AI and deep tech together now represent 36% of European VC.
Atomico is essentially saying that Europe is not behind. It’s just structured differently.
The fund also believes that Europe can absolutely lead in the next tech cycle if it stops tripping over regulation, fragmentation, and capital constraints.
The key message: Europe can win, but it needs to harmonize markets, accelerate spin-offs, and unlock pension-fund capital. Atomico estimates Europe could add trillions in unrealised GDP by closing structural gaps.
“Active, but increasingly uneven.”
PitchBook’s data paints a significantly cooler picture.
So far in 2025 through Q3:
- VC deal value sits at €43.7B, implying a 6.1% YoY decline if the trend holds.
- Deal count is falling faster than deal value. Europe is doing fewer but bigger deals (a cup of Mistral, anyone?!)
- AI dominates 39.1% of all deal value, ~€17.1B so far.
- Life sciences and fintech, until recently resilient, are slowing sharply.
- Some regions (Southern Europe, Israel) are gaining share while the UK & Ireland are slipping.
- Fundraising is on track for a 52.3% YoY collapse, the weakest year in a decade.
- France & Benelux fundraising accounts for only 10.9% of Europe YTD (vs. 17.9% in 2024).
PitchBook’s Europe is not dying. But it’s definitely running on caffeine and selective enthusiasm.
Where Atomico sees foundational strength, PitchBook sees AI-driven concentration and liquidity bottlenecks.
France in 2025: Consensus (kinda sorta)
Regarding France, the two reports surprisingly converge, at least partially.
“Paris is winning the capital game.”
Atomico positions France as one of the breakout winners of 2025:
- Paris is now home to 4 of Europe’s 10 largest VC funds raised this year:
- Cathay Innovation Fund III ($1B)
- Eurazeo Growth Fund IV ($770M)
- ISAI Expansion III ($330M)
- Picus Venture Fund II ($290M)
- France remains Europe’s #3 destination for startup fundraising, expected to reach $6.1B in 2025.
- France is the centre of gravity for European AI model companies.
- Mistral’s September raise of $2B (with $1.5B from ASML alone) cements it as the best-funded private tech company in Europe.
Atomico’s verdict: "France is having a moment - and it’s not a small one”.
“AI is carrying the country on its back.”
PitchBook’s data is more literal and less enthusiastic, but still flattering for France.
France’s Mistral AI is the single largest venture deal in Europe in Q3 2025 at €1.3B, valued post-money at €11.7B. France also landed a major venture debt deal via Electra: €433M in July.
The fundraising picture is less rosy.
PitchBook’s verdict: France is one of the few bright spots, but overwhelmingly because of two massive AI and cleantech deals (Mistral and Electra). The broader ecosystem is… quieter.
Should we be optimistic or depressed?
The fun part about comparing Atomico and PitchBook is that they are both correct; they are just answering different questions.
Atomico asks: “What could Europe become if it gets its act together?”
Answer > a global powerhouse with a trillion-euro champion.
PitchBook asks: “What has actually happened through Q3?”
Answer > strong AI, weak everything else, collapsing fundraising, uneven exits.
Both matter. And when you put them together, a clearer picture emerges.
🇪🇺 Europe in 2025 is simultaneously…
- Resilient (big rounds, historic AI momentum)
- Under strain (deal count down, ecosystem reliance on mega-deals)
- Optimistic (talent flows, ambition, surveys)
- Capital-starved (fundraising worst in a decade)
🇫🇷 And France specifically is…
- Europe’s capital magnet at the fund level (Atomico)
- Europe’s AI epicenter at the deal level (PitchBook)
- But structurally lagging in overall fundraising (PitchBook)
- And culturally gaining confidence (Atomico)
Conclusion: Europe is bifurcated, not broken
The Atomico–PitchBook split perfectly captures Europe’s 2025 energy:
- The promise is huge.
- The present is complicated.
- The talent is staying.
- The capital is shrinking.
- The AI boom is real.
- The fundraising winter is also real.
